Premier League Predictions and best bets: Manchester United to punish shambolic Manchester City on Super Sunday

Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight as he hunts down the value in the markets.

When it looks like a draw, walks like a draw, quacks like a draw, then it's probably a draw.

And it becomes an interesting betting angle when that outcome is priced up as the outsider of the three at 11/4 with Sky Bet. When it comes to draws these two teams are superb at them. Crystal Palace have drawn a Premier League-high seven games this season and Brighton have drawn six - the joint second-most games.

Six of the last 10 meetings have also ended 1-1. Keep the draw on your side.

The fallen-giant derby.

Both teams are on their lowest points total after 15 Premier League games.

This sharp decline of Manchester City is becoming a maddening thing to unpack with Pep Guardiola's insistence that City are playing well while acting uncharacteristically hapless in trying to fix it is certainly adding to the circus of it all.

The defensive numbers behind City's results of seven defeats in 10 are extraordinary - a sackable offence for most managers. Since October 5, City are working at a per-game average of conceding 2.79 big chances on their goal - only Ipswich and Southampton have a worse return. Teams are charging past them in transition at will and their per-game average of being dribbled past figure of 10.36 is extraordinary - only West Ham have a higher average.

Guardiola's side have conceded two or more goals in nine of their last 10 matches, meaning the 7/4 with Sky Bet on Manchester United following suit and scoring at least twice is the value call in a winnable game for Ruben Amorim if he gets his tactics right to expose City's laughable make-up out of possession.

Why aren't Chelsea serious title contenders? It's a question I've been pondering as they've shortened dramatically into 6/1 with Sky Bet for the Premier League crown. The inconsistency factor is high on that reasoning.

Teams that win titles win matches when not playing well. I'm not sure this young Chelsea side are there yet - there are going to be bumps in the road, especially with such an unreliable goalkeeper in Robert Sanchez between the sticks. That bump could be on the horizon here.

Credit to them they've managed to fend off a funny result for most of the season but one might be due, which may help dampen the expectations in the long run. Brentford haven't lost to Chelsea in five matches, winning the last three at Stamford Bridge. Yes, Thomas Frank's football isn't quite as savage on the road but they will hold no fear and Chelsea look a risky prospect at 1/3 with Sky Bet for the win, especially at an odd kick-off time.

Brentford double chance at 9/4 it is then.

Tyler Dibling is going to win Southampton a game on his own soon - he's that good.

And in truth, Russell Martin probably needs him to as the Saints carry little attacking threat, bar the exciting vibes that Dibling brings.

This might be the night where Dibling delivers a big one. Defences don't come as generous as Tottenham's without Micky van de Ven - he is so instrumental to Ange Postecoglou's style of football and his weak hamstrings will probably be the big Aussie's downfall as Spurs look flat, timid and a shell of their best at the moment.

Dibling to score in a home win at 9/1 with Sky Bet stands out.

Andoni Iraola's unique and hard-to-stop football is surely going to land him a top job soon enough - if a vacancy were to come up at Tottenham for example, Iraola should be their number one priority.

In the last 44 games, Iraola has Bournemouth as the sixth-best team in the Premier League - that is an outrageous achievement for a club who were only promoted two seasons ago. Just look at how subsequent promoted teams have fared, it's no easy task.

They are a better football team in every department than West Ham, who once again looked quite stodgy and lacking identity in their important win over Wolves. The home win is skinny enough at 7/10 with Sky Bet but adding under 4.5 goals into the mix gets us to a 5/4 shot that makes sense considering the Cherries have seen under that line in 10 of their last 12 home matches.