Will Premier League have fifth Champions League place next season? Opta rates the chances

The Premier League has been given a 98.5 per cent chance of being awarded an additional place in next season's Champions League.

Last season, England also looked a stick-on for an additional spot following the group stages of the three continental competitions.

But a poor performance across the knockouts left them third in the coefficient table. Only the top four finishers in the Premier League qualified for the Champions League as a result, meaning Tottenham missed out and entered the Europa League.

England had finished in the top two of the coefficient table in six of the previous seven seasons but the Premier League suffered its lowest coefficient total since 2016/17 - and it would have been even lower but for the introduction of the Conference League in 2021/22.

This time around, however, Chelsea have blown away all before them in the Conference League, while Liverpool have a 100 per cent record from their opening six Champions League games. Arsenal are in third, while Villa sit fifth with two league games remaining.

Manchester United, meanwhile, are unbeaten in the Europa League - the same competition in which Spurs currently sit ninth.

Of all the teams that are in danger of an early elimination, it is English champions Manchester City - currently 22nd in the Champions League standings and with work to do.

But according to Opta, England have an incredible 98.5 per cent chance at present of being awarded the coveted extra spot for the 2025/26 campaign - ahead of Italy and Spain.

In the coefficient standings, a win is worth two points, a draw one and there are also bonus points for reaching certain stages of competitions.

Based on the current Premier League standings, Man City have still been given a 90 per cent chance of finishing in the top five based on predicted results on the pitch - with only Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea having a higher percentage probability.

Bournemouth - who currently occupy fifth spot - have a 14.8 per cent chance - more than double that of Manchester United down in 13th position.

Aston Villa's uptick in recent form has enhanced their odds, with Opta giving them a 24.5 per cent chance of claiming the fifth Champions League place.

To achieve automatic qualification into the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.

Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so will have the second leg at home. Those from 17th to 24th will be unseeded, so have the first leg at home.

Teams that finish anywhere from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from this season's competition, with no access to the Europa League.

Yes, it does. The final league position gives you a specific route - and specific opponents - in the knockout draw.

The below graphic shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time, the knockout rounds are decided by the league phase - with no separate draws for the last 16, quarter-finals and beyond.

For example, the teams that finish first or second in the league phase will face a team that finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Compare that to the team that finishes in seventh or eighth, who could play a team that finishes in 23rd or 24th - but also run the risk of facing the team in ninth or 10th spot - which could be a major European outfit.

The advantage for the team finishing first or second is they will guarantee playing a team in the 'middle' of the final Champions League table. Finishing lower down runs the risk of playing a better side.

Not necessarily. Particularly this season.

The early struggles of teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean a top European side could end up in the 'middle' of the Champions League table - thereby coming up against one of the best-performing sides.

Currently, Liverpool are top of the league table - but the teams who began this gameweek in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Benfica, Monaco, Sporting and Feyenoord - with PSG, Real Madrid and Man City below those teams in the table.

So if top teams continue to not do as well as expected in the league phase, it could create some blockbuster last-16 ties, thereby taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible spots.

Again, yes. A big one. And it's all to do with the play-offs.

The new Champions League format means the team that finishes ninth faces the team in 24th in the play-off round. Tenth plays 23rd, 11th plays 22nd and so on.

So if you just miss out on a top-eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst-performing sides that qualified from the league phase. So the higher you finish, the 'easier' game you get.

But again, if teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league phase, you could have top sides meeting each other in the play-off rounds.

The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which then guarantees you a last-16 spot in March. Liverpool have surpassed that tally having won all of their six games so far, while Aston Villa are just one win away from that checkpoint.

The data also believes 15 points could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the league phase.

Meanwhile, 14 points is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish. Arsenal are currently on 13 points, so victory over Dinamo Zagreb in their next Champions League game in January should seal a top-eight finish.

To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already reached that tally, but City and Celtic still have a bit of work to do.

Celtic are currently on nine points after their goalless draw at Dinamo Zagreb, but City still lie on eight points with two matches to go. They face PSG and Club Brugge in those matches.

Nine points could also be enough to finish 24th, in a boost to City, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.

But eight points runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.

The Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa are set to finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot's side staying top, the Gunners in third and Villa in seventh.

On current form, Manchester City and Celtic are set to finish in 22nd and 18th.

The supercomputer also says PSG are on course to finish 24th - avoiding elimination by the skin of their teeth.

Liverpool are currently the favourites to win the Champions League, with Slot's side given a 20 per cent chance of winning the trophy in Munich after a stellar start to the season.

Arsenal are third favourites with 13.2 per cent - just ahead of Pep Guardiola's Man City - fourth favourites on 9.3 per cent.

Inter Milan are second favourites on 15.8 per cent - with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting making up the top 10.

Aston Villa have a 0.6 per cent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic on 0.3 per cent.

The 2025 Champions League final will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.